[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Post-Holiday Ferrochrome Prices Remain Generally Stable, Sentiment Diverges Between Chrome Ore Buyers and Sellers

On October 10, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); South African high-carbon ferrochrome offers were 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome offers were 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The ferrochrome market operated steadily in the first week after the holiday, with overall inquiries and transactions slightly mediocre, awaiting downstream stainless steel mills to enter for procurement. Northern producers' offers remained in the range of 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content). During the day, a major northern steel mill announced the October 2025 tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content) cash including tax delivered to the plant, up 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM. Meanwhile, South Africa's domestic ferrochrome smelting operations remained largely halted, and the decline in ferrochrome exports continued, with overseas ferrochrome supply expected to remain tight. Driven by the peak consumption season, the downstream stainless steel market maintained high production schedules, providing rigid demand support for ferrochrome. Overall, the tight supply-demand balance for ferrochrome supported prices fluctuating at highs, producer confidence remained, and the ferrochrome market was expected to operate steadily in the short term.

Raw material side, on October 10, 2025, spot offers at Tianjin port for 40-42% South African concentrate were 56.5-57.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore were 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder were 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore were 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder were 66-67 yuan/mtu, down slightly by 0.25 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. Futures side, offers for 40-42% South African concentrate were $280-284/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder were $345-355/mt, flat MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, the chrome ore market operated steadily, with sentiment diverging between buyers and sellers. Buyer side, traders were active in offering. South African chrome ore exports remained high at 2 million mt, and both shipments and port inventory continued to rise, suggesting a potential future supply surplus that might impact chrome ore prices, leading to a strong willingness to sell among traders, with offer prices mostly leaning towards the lower end of the range. Seller side, due to pre-holiday stockpiling and concentrated futures arrivals for restocking, ferrochrome producers held relatively sufficient raw material inventory and were mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach, with concentrated purchase transactions expected around mid-October. Futures side, during the day, a major South African mine at Tianjin port offered its new round of futures price for 40-42% chrome concentrate powder at $282/mt, up $2/mt MoM, with a chrome-to-iron ratio of 1.3. Against the backdrop of high planned production of ferrochrome, chrome ore prices are expected to receive support in the future. Coupled with the favorable operating trend in the ferrochrome market, which provides a certain boost to chrome ore, the chrome ore market is projected to maintain stable operations in the short term. From a macro perspective, the South African government plans to impose an additional 25% export tariff on chrome ore. Domestic opinions on the taxation policy are divided, drawing close market attention. SMM will continue to monitor subsequent policy developments.